The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released Nigeria’s GDP numbers for Q4-21, with real GDP growing by 3.98% y/y (Q3-21: +4.03% y/y | Q4-20: +0.11% y/y), marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth after the COVID-19 induced recession in Q3-20. For 2021FY, real GDP grew by 3.40% (2020FY: -1.92%).

Analysing the breakdown provided, analyst highlight shows that the oil sector’s woes remain intact as it contracted 8.06% y/y (Q4-20: -19.76% y/y). According to the NBS, crude oil production averaged 1.50mb/d in Q4-21, 3.8% y/y lower than Q4-20 (1.56mb/d).

The oil sector contributed 5.19% to total GDP (vs Q4-20: 5.87%) during the review period.
Elsewhere, the non-oil sector grew by 4.73% y/y in Q4-21 (vs 1.69% in Q4-20). The non-oil sector contributed 94.81% to total GDP (vs 94.13% and 92.51% in Q4-20 and Q3-21, respectively).

Analysing the breakdown of three of the most significant components of the GDP: Agriculture grew stronger by 3.58% y/y (vs +1.22% y/y in Q3-21); Industries contracted by 0.05% y/y, (vs -1.63% y/y in Q3-21); while Services grew by 5.58% (vs +8.41% y/y in Q3-21).

In terms of contribution, services, agriculture, and industries, respectively, accounted for 55.11%, 26.84%, and 18.05% of overall output.