Nigeria’s headline inflation decelerated for the seventh consecutive month to 15.99% y/y in October 2021 (September: 16.63% y/y). The outturn is 33bps lower than Cordros’ estimate (16.32% y/y) and 21bps lower than Bloomberg’s median consensus estimate (16.20% y/y), with deviations stemming from both the food and core baskets. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation moderated by 17bps to 0.98%.

Food inflation also sustained its deceleration for the seventh consecutive month, declining by 123bps to 18.34% y/y in October 2021 (September: 19.57% y/y). Notably, the most significant price increases were recorded in Coffee, tea and cocoa, Milk, cheese and eggs, Bread and cereals, Vegetables and potatoes, Yam and other tuber. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation reversed last month’s increase, as it rose by 0.91% in October (September: 1.26% m/m).

Similarly, core inflation slowed by 51bps to 13.24% y/y (September: 13.74% y/y). Pressures were most significant in the prices of Gas, fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment, Vehicle spare parts, Non-durable household goods.

Solid fuel, Passenger transport by road, Passenger transport by air, Garments, Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, Major household appliances whether electric or not, Wine, Clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories and Liquid fuel. Compared to the previous month, the core index moderated by 45bps to 0.80% m/m in October.