According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s economy maintained its growth momentum in Q2-23, with real GDP growing by 2.51% y/y (Q1-23: +2.31% y/y). The growth outturn is 60bps lower than Cordros’ estimate (+3.11% y/y), primarily due to the higher-than-expected oil sector’s contraction.

Based on the GDP breakdown provided, the oil sector’s performance continued to experience contraction, declining by 13.43% y/y (Q1-23: -4.21% y/y).

According to the NBS, crude oil production averaged 1.22mb/d in Q2-23, 19.2% y/y lower than in Q1-23 (1.51mb/d). As a result, the oil sector contributed 5.34% to the total GDP (Q1-23: 6.21%) during the review period.

Conversely, the non-oil sector sustained its positive growth trajectory, rising by 3.58% y/y in Q2-23 (Q1-23: +2.77% y/y) as the negative impact of the cash scarcity witnessed in Q1-23 subsided. As a result, the non-oil sector contributed 94.66% to the total GDP (vs 93.79% in Q1-23).

Breaking down the GDP on a sectoral basis: Agriculture grew by 1.50% y/y (Q1-23: -0.90% y/y); Industries contracted by 1.94% y/y compared to a growth of 0.31% y/y in Q1-23; while Services grew by 4.42% y/y (Q1-23: +4.35% y/y).

In terms of contribution, Services, Agriculture, and Industries, respectively, accounted for 58.42%, 23.01%, and 18.56% of overall output growth.