Nigeria’s Economy Maintain Growth Trajectory as GDP Grew by 3.52% in fourth quarter of 2022

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Nigeria’s GDP numbers for Q4-22, with domestic economic activities growing by 3.52% y/y (Q3-22: +2.25% y/y | Q4-21: +3.98% y/y). For 2022FY, real GDP grew by 3.10% (2021FY: +3.40%).

The growth outturn outperformed Cordros’ estimate (+2.72% y/y), owing to the more than expected growth in the non-oil sector, and 102bps higher than Bloomberg’s median consensus (+2.50% y/y) estimate.

A cursory examination of the breakdown of GDP figures showed that the oil sector contracted by 13.38% y/y (Q1-22: -22.67% y/y). According to the NBS, crude oil production averaged 1.34mb/d in Q4-22, 11.67% higher than Q3-22 (1.20mb/d). As a result, the oil sector contributed 4.34% to the total GDP (Q3-22: 5.66%) during the review period.

Elsewhere, the non-oil sector grew by 4.44% y/y in Q4-22 (vs 4.27% in Q3-22). The non-oil sector contributed 95.66% to total GDP (vs 94.81% and 94.34% in Q4-21 and Q3-22, respectively).

Analysing the breakdown of three of the most significant components of the GDP: Agriculture grew stronger by 2.05% y/y (vs +1.34% y/y in Q3-22); Industries contracted by 0.94% y/y (vs -8.00% y/y in Q3-22); while Services grew by 5.69% (vs +7.01% y/y in Q3-22)

In terms of contribution, Services, Agriculture, and Industries, respectively, accounted for 55.40%, 25.58%, and 19.02% of overall output.