Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that the domestic economy maintained its growth pace for the third consecutive quarter in the third quarter of 2023, as the real GDP rose by 2.54% above 2.51% that was recorded in second quarter of 2023.

The growth outturn is 41bps lower than analyst estimate 2.95%  and 35bps lower than Bloomberg’s median consensus 2.89%  estimate.

According to the GDP breakdown provided, the oil sector improved in 0.85% against |13.43%  in second quarter of 2023,  albeit still in the contractionary territory, as the crude oil production increased by 20.8%  to an average of 1.45mb/d in third quarter against 1.22mb/d in second quarter of 2023. Consequently, the oil sector contributed 5.48% to the total GDP against 5.34% in second quarter of 2023.

On the other hand, the non-oil sector sustained its positive growth trend, albeit lower than the previous quarter, rising by 2.75%  against 3.58%  in second quarter of 2023. Accordingly, the non-oil sector contributed 94.52% to the total GDP , when compared with 94.66% in first quarter of 2023.

From a sectoral perspective, the Agriculture GDP grew slower by 1.30%  against 1.50%  in second quarter of 2023, Industries GDP grew by 0.46% compared to the contraction -1.94% in second quarter of 2023, while Services GDP grew by 3.99%  against 4.42%  recorded in second quarter of 2023..

In terms of contributions, Services, Agriculture and Industries, respectively, had a total of 52.70%, 29.31% and 18.00% of overall output growth.