Nigeria Inflation Moderates by 5bps to 18.12% in April 2021

Nigeria’s headline inflation slowed down for the first time since August 2019 when it declined marginally by 6bps. Pertinently, the headline inflation moderated by 5bps to 18.12% y/y in April 2021 (March: 18.17% y/y).

The outturn is 63bps lower than analysts’ estimate (18.75% y/y) and 68bps less than Bloomberg’s median consensus estimate (18.80% y/y), with the largest deviation coming from the food basket. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation moderated by 59bps to 0.97%.

Food inflation slowed down by 23bps to 22.72% y/y in April 2021 (March: 22.95% y/y). Notably, the highest price increases were recorded in  Bread and cereals, Fish, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Vegetables, Meat, Milk, cheese and egg, Oils and fats, Soft drinks and Coffee, Tea and Cocoa. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation slowed to 0.99% in April (March: 1.90%).

Meanwhile, core inflation was up by 7bps to 12.74% y/y. Pressures were most significant in the prices of Pharmaceutical products, Vehicle spare parts, Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishment, Garments, Furniture and furnishing, Medical services, Shoes and other foot wears, Motor cars, Major household appliances whether electric or not.

Dental services, Hospital services, Non-durable household goods, and Fuel and lubricants for personal transport equipment. On a month-on-month basis, the core index moderated for the second consecutive month to 0.99% in April (March: 1.06%).