Nigeria GDP Grew by 2.31% in first quarter of 2023

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Nigeria’s GDP numbers for Q1-23, with real GDP growing slowly by 2.31% y/y (Q4-22: +3.52% y/y). The growth outturn is 42bps higher than Cordros’ estimate (+1.89% y/y) and 54bps lower than Bloomberg’s median consensus (+2.85% y/y) estimate.

A cursory examination of the breakdown of GDP figures showed that the oil sector declined at a slower pace, contracting by 4.21% y/y (Q4-22: -13.38% y/y). According to the NBS, crude oil production averaged 1.51 mb/d in Q1-23, 1.3% y/y higher than Q1-22 (1.49 mb/d). As a result, the oil sector contributed 6.21% to the total GDP (Q4-22: 4.34%) during the review period.

Elsewhere, the non-oil sector maintained its positive growth path but grew moderately by 2.77% y/y in Q1-23 (Q4-22: +4.44% y/y) – the lowest print since Q1-21 (+0.79% y/y). The non-oil sector contributed 93.79% to total GDP (vs 93.37% and 95.66% in Q1-22 and Q4-22, respectively).

Analysing the GDP on a sectoral basis: Agriculture contracted by 0.90% y/y (Q4-22: +2.05% y/y); Industries rose by 0.31% y/y compared to a decline of 0.94% y/y in Q4-22; while Services grew by 4.35% y/y (Q4-22: +5.69% y/y).

In terms of contribution, Services, Agriculture, and Industries, respectively, accounted for 57.29%, 21.66%, and 21.05% of overall output growth.