The Chief Executive Officer of CFG Advisory, Tilewa Adebajo has projected that Nigeria’s economic recovery will span 18 months, commencing in 2024.
Adebajo made this prediction while delivering a presentation titled “Nigeria’s Fiscal Environment in an Era of Monetary Policy Tightening” at the June 2024 edition of the Finance Correspondents Association of Nigeria (FICAN) in Lagos.
According to Adebajo, the economic recovery process will be characterized by a tight monetary policy regime, aimed at curbing inflation and addressing foreign exchange scarcity.
He emphasized the need for a coordinated effort from stakeholders to achieve sustainable economic growth.
Adebajo’s projection suggests that Nigeria’s economic recovery will be a protracted process, requiring patience and perseverance.
His remarks come as the country navigates a challenging economic landscape, marked by fiscal and monetary policy tightening.
Tilewa Adebajo, CEO of CFG Advisory, shed light on Nigeria’s macroeconomic prospects for 2024, highlighting the country’s journey from stagflation to growth.
He emphasized that this transition will be characterized by, high interest rates to combat inflation, Persistent foreign exchange scarcity in the official market (NFEM), Reliance on the parallel market for respite.
Despite Nigeria’s robust economic fundamentals, Adebajo lamented that poor leadership has hindered the country’s potential for growth.
He emphasized the need for effective economic management to unlock Nigeria’s economic potential and achieve sustainable growth.
Adebajo expressed optimism about Nigeria’s economic prospects, citing the new economic management team’s highly rated credentials.
He stated, “Expectations are high, and the success of our business projections and the economy hinges on their commitment and sincerity in implementing and delivering on their reform policies.”
The effective execution of these reforms will be crucial in determining the country’s economic trajectory, and Adebajo’s sentiments reflect the widespread hope that this new team will drive Nigeria’s economic growth and development.
Adebajo emphasized the ultimate objective: “Our goal is to steer the economy out of stagflation and achieve sustainable GDP growth targets.”
He noted that Moody’s recent positive outlook acknowledges the bold reforms underway in Nigeria, but also highlights the persisting challenges, as reflected in the Caa1 rating, which indicates poor credit quality and high credit risk.
This nuanced assessment underscores the need for sustained efforts to consolidate reforms and foster a more resilient economy.
Adebajo highlighted a critical obstacle to Nigeria’s economic recovery: “Unchecked fiscal expenditure and unauthorized financing, which has exceeded the limit by over thirty times, totaling N30 trillion, poses a significant risk to achieving sustainable growth in 2024.”
He emphasized that overcoming stagflation and attaining sustainable growth requires a collaborative effort from all stakeholders, including the government, private sector, and international community. A comprehensive approach is essential to address these challenges and ensure a robust economic recovery.
Adebajo tempered expectations, noting that Nigeria’s economic transformation will be a prolonged process. “Recovery will be a gradual and time-consuming endeavor, requiring patience and perseverance. However, with the right policies, genuine commitment, and sustained effort, Nigeria can steadily move towards achieving economic stability and growth. This is a marathon, not a sprint; progress may be slow, but with persistence and dedication, we can reach the finish line.”
