Nigeria’s headline inflation slowed for the first time since December 2022 (-12bps to 21.34% y/y), settling at 33.40% y/y in July 2024 (June: 34.19% y/y).

The outturn is 13ps and 10bps higher than Cordros’ (33.27% y/y) and Bloomberg’s median consensus (33.30%) estimates, respectively.

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed by 3bps to 2.28% (June: 2.31% m/m). Food inflation moderated by 134bps to 39.53% y/y (June: 40.87% y/y).

The slowdown can be attributed to the decline in the rate of increase in the average prices of Tin Milk, Baby Powdered milk, etc. (Under Milk, Cheese & egg Class), Mudfish fish, Fresh fish (Obokun), snail, etc. (Under Fish Class), Date Palm fruit (Debenu), Watermelon, etc.

Garri, Akpu (fufu), etc. (Under Bread and Cereals Class), Exercise books, Textbooks, etc. (Under Books & Stationaries Class) and Turkey meat, Minced Pork, etc (Under Meat Class). Thus, on a month-on-month basis, food inflation settled at 2.47%, relative to the 2.55% m/m recorded in June.

However, core inflation (All items less farm produce and energy) rose by 6bps to 27.47% y/y (June: 27.40% y/y).

The highest increases were recorded in prices of the following items: Rents (Actual and Imputed Rentals for Housing Class), Bus Journey intercity, Journey by motorcycle, etc (under Passenger Transport by Road Class), and Accommodation Service, Laboratory service, X-ray photog-raphy, Consultation Fee of a medical doctor, etc (under Medical Services Class).

Similarly, the core index increased by 10bps to 2.16% m/m in July compared to the previous month (2.06% m/m).