Nigeria Records First Negative Real GDP Growth Rate Since Q2-2004


The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released Nigeria first quarter 2016 Growth Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimate. Real growth came in at historic of negative 0.36 percent. The first since -0.18 percent recorded in second quarter of 2004.

Over the first three months, the oil sector was challenged with volatile crude oil prices and domestic production shortages while (1) protracted constraints in accessing foreign exchange and (2) slowdown in business investment decisions occasioned by the delayed passage of the 2016 budget deepened disruptions in the non-oil sector.

These were in addition to systemic issues such as lingering fuel supply shortages, significant drop in electricity power outage despite a 40 percent hike in tariff, and the rampaging activities of herdsmen adding to insecurity concerns in some parts of the country.

A quick look at the breakdown of the growth figure shows that the oil sector recorded a negative growth of 1.89 percent from -8.28 percent in fourth quarter of 2015 and -8.15 percent in first quarter of 2015 while the non-oil sector growth stood at -0.18 percent from growth of 3.14 percent in fourth quarter of 2015 and 5.59 percent in first quarter of 2015.

A quick look at the breakdown of the biggest components of the GDP shows that Agric (23 percent of GDP), Trade (c.17 percent of GDP), Services (c.20 percent of GDP) and ICT (11 percent of GDP) recorded respective year on year growth contractions of 161bps, 445bps, 714bps and 542bps. Manufacturing (c.10 percent of GDP) expectedly recorded negative 7 percent growth.

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